This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid

A mere two months in the past when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a sign or a cause of the team's wider issues.

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have piled up.

Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus United.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
• The winger may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.